Learners often assume that Futur I and Futur II are strictly about future time. In authentic spoken and written German, however, werden + infinitive is used just as often—if not more often—to express assumptions (Vermutungen) about the present or the past!
Just as English speakers say “That’ll be the postman” when the doorbell rings or “She’ll have left by now” when a friend isn’t answering, German relies on Futur I and Futur II as probability markers. Adding modal particles such as wohl, wahrscheinlich, sicher, or schon makes the assumption unmistakable.
1. Futur I = Assumption About the Present
Structure: conjugated werden + … + (wohl / sicher / schon) + Infinitiv
Even though the grammar looks identical to the future tense, the time reference is right now:
- Wo ist Anna? — Sie wird (wohl) noch im Büro sein. (Where is Anna? — She’s probably still at the office. — das Büro)
- Das wird schon stimmen. (That’s probably right / I suppose that’s true.)
- Es klingelt an der Tür. Das wird der Paketbote sein. (The doorbell is ringing. That’ll be the delivery driver. — die Tür, der Paketbote)
- Warum antwortet er nicht? — Er wird wahrscheinlich gerade schlafen. (Why isn’t he answering? — He’s probably sleeping right now.)
Look at how wohl (here meaning probably / I suppose, unstressed in the middle field) or schon (reassuring probably / no doubt) instantly flips the reading away from tomorrow and onto the current moment.
2. Futur II = Assumption About the Past
Structure: conjugated werden + … + Partizip II + haben / sein
When you are standing in the present and guessing what already happened earlier, German steps into Futur II. Pay careful attention to the final auxiliary infinitive: use haben for verbs that take haben in the Perfekt, and sein for verbs of movement or state change:
- Er ist nicht da. Er wird den Zug verpasst haben. (He isn’t here. He has probably missed the train. — der Zug, verpassen takes haben)
- Sie wird schon nach Hause gegangen sein. (She has probably gone home already. — gehen takes sein!)
- Peter geht nicht ans Telefon. Er wird den Termin vergessen haben. (Peter isn’t answering the phone. He probably forgot the appointment. — das Telefon, der Termin)
- Die Straße ist nass. Es wird heute Nacht geregnet haben. (The street is wet. It probably rained last night. — die Straße, die Nacht)
Notice why Futur II is far more common in conversation for past assumptions than for its literal future meaning!
3. Futur II for Completed Future Time (Less Common)
Technically, Futur II can also describe an event that will be finished before a deadline in the future:
- Bis Freitag werde ich den Bericht geschrieben haben. (By Friday I will have written the report. — der Bericht)
In everyday speech, however, German speakers strongly prefer the simpler Perfekt + future time expression for that same meaning:
- Bis Freitag habe ich den Bericht geschrieben. (By Friday I will have finished writing the report.)
4. Comparing werden with Modal Verb Alternatives
German also expresses probability using the subjective use of modal verbs. Notice how werden sits comfortably near the upper-middle of the certainty scale, and notice how past assumptions shift the main verb into the Infinitiv Perfekt (Partizip II + haben/sein):
| Certainty Level | About the Present | About the Past |
|---|---|---|
| Almost sure (logical conclusion) | Er muss krank sein. (He must be ill.) | Er muss krank gewesen sein. (He must have been ill.) |
| Assumption (strong guess) | Er wird (wohl) krank sein. (He’s probably ill.) | Er wird krank gewesen sein. (He was probably ill.) |
| Probable (well-founded guess) | Er dürfte krank sein. (He is likely ill.) | Er dürfte krank gewesen sein. (He was likely ill.) |
| Possible (tentative guess) | Er könnte krank sein. (He might be ill.) | Er könnte krank gewesen sein. (He might have been ill.) |
Remember: in Er dürfte krank sein, dürfte is formally the Konjunktiv II of dürfen, yet in this epistemic meaning it has nothing to do with permission—it simply translates to “is likely / should probably”.
Word Order in Subordinate Clauses
When a present or past assumption sits inside a dass- or weil-clause, werden moves to the final position—right after the infinitive (Futur I) or right after haben/sein (Futur II):
- Ich vermute, dass sie schon nach Hause gegangen sein wird. (I suspect she has probably gone home already.)
- Wir nehmen an, dass er den Schlüssel vergessen haben wird. (We assume he probably forgot the key. — der Schlüssel)
(Verify any verb’s auxiliary and Partizip II in the Verb Conjugator, or check nested verb clusters in the Sentence Analyzer.)
Common Mistakes: Wrong vs. Right
| Mistake | Wrong | Right | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Using haben instead of sein in Futur II | Sie wird schon nach Hause gegangen haben. | Sie wird schon nach Hause gegangen sein. | Movement verbs like gehen require sein in both Perfekt and Futur II. |
| Using Perfekt (geworden) inside a past assumption | Er ist den Zug verpasst worden. | Er wird den Zug verpasst haben. | ist … worden is passive voice (“was missed”), not an active assumption with werden. |
| Translating wird wohl literally as future | Sie wird wohl noch im Büro sein. = “She will be at the office tomorrow.” | Sie wird wohl noch im Büro sein. = “She’s probably still at the office.” | noch + wohl marks a present-time assumption, not future time. |
| Using finite hat instead of infinitive haben in Futur II | Er wird den Termin vergessen hat. | Er wird den Termin vergessen haben. | After conjugated wird, the auxiliary at the end must stay an infinitive (haben or sein). |
To complete the full picture of werden (main verb, future/assumption, and passive), explore the triple role of werden and subjective modal verbs.